The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day

The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day∗

We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a ti...

www.econstor.eu Futures Premium Regressions and a Latent Factor Day by Day∗

Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle

We offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the consequent rise in the forward premium ...

Impacts of Premium Bounds on the Operation of Put Option and Day-ahead Electricity Markets

In this paper‎, ‎the impacts of premium bounds of put option contracts on the operation of put option and day-ahead electricity markets are studied‎. ‎To this end‎, ‎first a comprehensive equilibrium model for a joint put option and day-ahead markets is presented‎. ‎Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets‎, ‎uncertainty in fuel price, impact of premium bounds, and elasticity of con...

Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?∗

Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than one and often negative. We investigate whether replacing rational expectations by discounted least squares (or “perpetual”) learning can explain the result. We calculate the asymp...